Prediction For The Future: History Repeats Itself:
My Prediction for the future: The EU was the immediate result of the fallout from World War 1 and World War 2, the main political and military events of the twentieth century. The European countries had had enough by the 1950’s and wanted time to get their economies going again. But as the years went by, the various European countries became more prosperous. The people in Europe start to forget the immediate past and the lessons of the world wars. Nationalism starts to raise its ugly head again, at least ugly if you don’t like this sort of thing and remember what it led to in the past.
Nationalism in its modern sense had its origins in Europe. I think it was the Sun King, Louis XIV, who first brought France together as a nation state. England under the Tudors wasn’t far behind. For instance, Henry VIII breaking with the Church in Rome was exercising his nationalist muscles. Even countries like Germany and Italy fell in line during the 19th century with unification movements.
Two years ago I would have said the EU would last forever. My prediction has since changed with all this Middle Eastern terrorism in Europe and the Syrian refugees pouring in. I think this is helping to ignite nationalist movements all over Europe. Heck, Martin Luther was able to get the German states to function together to eject the Turk, Suleiman, who came knocking on the gates of Vienna. And to do this he had to interrupt principalities at war with each other in the build up to the Thirty Years War. Yes, Europe is remembering its old identities again.
Britain, the most prosperous European country after WW2, has found its old identity first. It wants to eject immigrants and build walls, I guess. Soon other states may follow in the general breakup of the EU. Either that or the solid core of the EU that might remain will be all Germanic. Germany, Austria, Belgium, Holland, and the Scandinavian countries are all Germanic in origin. On Roman maps you find reference to a tribe in Greater Gaul called the Belgii, for instance. Parts of France were Gauls. The line at the Rhine River was imposed by the Varusschlacht in 9AD, but still these were all the same sort of tribes. In the future if this part of the EU survives it may be only to assert a new kind of German nationalism. You might find that this sounds like a nightmare for the future. But the more things change, the more they remain the same.
The Varusschlacht is the subject of an upcoming Edward Ware Thrillers at War novel entitled the Cherusci Plot.